There won’t be a court case on the suspects who downed MH17 in the next ten years. I am very much convinced about that.
I expect there will be a courtcase initiated by next of kin which will blame Ukraine for not closing its airspace. This court case will start but it will take many years. Probably Ukraine will not accept liability but will pay compensation.
There are a couple of reasons for my believe there will be no court case prosecuting the person(s) who shot MH17 down:
- the prosecutor will understand the evidence to convince Russia is very weak at best
- it takes an enormous lot of time and politics to agree on the format of the court case
- it will take a lot of time to prepare for the court case
So far we have seen very little evidence which provides clues to who responsible for downing MH17. Basically we see a framing of Russia based on social media sources and the narrative of Bellingcat. Even at the level of ministers like Minister of Foreign Affairs Koenders, we see reference to Bellingcat. The Dutch prosecutor spoke twice to Eliot Higgins, founder of Bellingcat , of in total 10 hours. This indicates there is little irrefutable evidence to make the public clear Russia is behind this.
The United States did not provide any evidence in public.
Dutch politics around July 18/19 and later in 2014 Dutch Safety Board and Dutch prosector were taken hostage by the United States and Ukraine and to a lesser extent the EU. There is no way out of the tunnel: the perpetrators must be Russian soldiers or Russian backed separatists.
Not stating Russia is direcly or in-directly responsible for downing of MH17 will have an enormous geo-political impact. There has been a reason for involvement of certain forces in the Maidan coup.
Internally the Dutch prosecutor must smell a rat. However higher forces are much stronger than the prosecutor. Whistleblowers are too afraid to step forward by expressing their experiences in the public.
My prediction is that the prosecutor/JIT will announce around November/December 2016 that they have a couple of suspects identified. The prosecutor will not reveal names, roles or states. It will be very vague. The prosecutor will then annouce the JIT is still working on a format for the court case. This despite the saying of Dutch Minister Koenders in early January 2016 that the format of the court case will be made known around summer 2016.
This is the maximum Western forces can reach. Public opinion believes Russia is responsible. Russia has been punished economicaly.
In 2017 the news on the prosecution will slowly get less and less. All kind of excuses will be made public explaining the delay of the court case. For example that Russia or the separatists are not willing to hand over suspects. Or that suspects cannot be found.
Sometime, in a couple of years, someone will tell that a court case will not be possible. MH17 will be archived. Just like the Italian DC9 which was shot down by an air to air missile in 1980.
In about 20 years from now, when current governments have been replaced, truth will come out. Maybe.