So how likely is a scenario in which Aeroflot 2704 was the intended target iso MH17?

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Ukraine Secret Service SBU claimed at a pressconference Russia intended to shot down an Aeroflot Airbus aircraft enroute from Moscow to Larnaca. The aircraft would crash on a location controlled by the Ukraine Army. Russia would blame Ukraine and this would provide Moscow with a pretext for invading Ukraine. (Moscow Times)

This is the video recording of the press conference

I wrote a blogpost about this scenario here.

Separatists were “ordered” to position a Buk anti-aircraft missile near the village of Pervomaisk in eastern Ukraine, but because the fighters were Russian, not local, they confused two settlements with the same name and less than 100 kilometers apart, SBU chief Nalyvaichenko said in a statement by his agency.

So how likely is this scenario?

First of all the town of Pervomaisk. There are indeed multiple towns called Pervomaisk in Eastern Ukraine, as in Russia. That alone would trigger any person to double check on which town to drive to with a BUK when given the order ” go to Pervomaisk” .

Secondly,  the BUK vehicle was photographed in Snizhne opposite the headquarters of the separatists. It was parked there for a while. I wrote a post about this here. The crew of the BUK for sure had contact with the separatists so a mistake of village is impossible.

Next the heading of MH17 was totally different than the heading of the Aeroflot aircraft. The crew of the BUK must have been aware of it.

The position of the Aeroflot aircraft relative to the BUK would be such that the Aeroflot aircraft crossed more or less from north to south on the western side of the BUK vehicle.

MH17 flew from northwest towards the southeast and was located northeast of the BUK is the BUK was positioned south of Snizhne.

So this is a very unlikely scenario. It seems the Ukraine secret service  made a big mistake by publishing this story. Not their first mistake as they relaeased a photo of an Ukraine BUK on a trailer while telling the press it was a Russian BUK.


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21 Comments on So how likely is a scenario in which Aeroflot 2704 was the intended target iso MH17?

  1. 1. The answer is in the audio-tape confiscated from the ATC Tower by Ukraine.

    2. Also, if USA is holding back on a confirmation satellite surveillance video, then that too is criminally withholding critical evidence.

    3. And finally the gag order agreement signed by Ukraine a suspect with motive, is the dead give away of a mass cover-up. That spells a “Mossad” false-flag to a tee.

  2. This story is one of the most silly rabbits the Comical Alis from Kiev pulled out of their cylinders, maybe second only to their explanation of the tragic events in Odessa that occurred on May 2nd, 2014: according to them the victims were all FSB-agents flown in from Transnistria, in order to set fire to themselves. Like the “suicide squad” in Monthy Python’s “Life of Brian” (happy birthday Graham Chapman, btw)

  3. It is completely unlikely the Russian crew of a BUK-TELAR would down a Russian plane. You must be sick to develop such a scenario. If Russians planned to invade Ukraine they already had enough arguments seen from their position to protect their own Russian people. They simply would have done the same as in the Crimea.

    But by this we have got a much bigger problem:

    We no longer live in the 19th century but in the digital age. And that means there was no delay for the SBU to control separatists in real time. Nowadays it takes no day to process telephone calls or to check the internet. It’s all real time now, especially since this secret service has been supported with millions of US dollars.

    We know Ukraine had the duty to guard the lives of thousands of air passengers traveling above Donetsk. But what have they done? They prove to have played bluff poker with the lives of numerous innocent air passengers.

    The SBU knew real time of the ostentatious journey of the BUK-TELAR through Donetsk, by real time tapping telephones and by a lot of spies with cell phones along the route to Donetsk. If their story is true or lied does not matter, for in both cases we have a devastating conclusion.

    We have to conclude they knew separatists were planning to shoot down a passenger aircraft. They did not interfere; they did not warn planes around Aeroflot civil aircraft, AFL-2074 Moscow-Larnaca. They did not warn MH17, while they knew MH17 was on ‘collision course’ above Donetsk. They also said they knew of “Birdie coming towards you” was radioed in from Gorlivka. All this foreknowledge is completely unacceptable.

    How do you think the international court will judge about Ukraine? Do you really think the world accepts the Ukrainian argument it is just a third world war with telephones with rotary handle? That Ukraine’s SBU was unable to conclude real time about the alleged separatist’s BUK in Donetsk? We conclude it has been totally irresponsible to continue passenger flights above Donetsk.

    This is case closed for the legal defense of Ukraine. Time and again Ukraine proves it was fully informed about the movements of separatists with their BUK in Donetsk. So, if we accept the Ukrainian allegations as true they proved not to interfere and in the other case they have lied.

    • It is completely unlikely the Russian crew of a BUK-TELAR would down a Russian plane.
      – Do you think they were told and accepted that they will ultimately shut down MH17 with a hundred children aboard?
      – Who told that the crew must be aware?

      You must be sick to develop such a scenario.
      – Despite all its sickness the scenario is very realistic. Putin has pulled out the same trick back in 1999.

      If Russians planned to invade Ukraine they already had enough arguments seen from their position to protect their own Russian people. They simply would have done the same as in the Crimea.
      – You forgot. According to Putin, no Russian army was in Crimea. All “green men” were locals.

  4. The claim a Russian plane was being targeted by Russia or rebels is as equally unlikely as a planned UA false flag operation to do the exact same,some people profess horror at one being considered but quite willing to believe the other,a clear flaw in their thinking.

  5. Athomas, please stop spreading lies.

    Exactly to the contrary, according to Ukrainian security services no one of the deceased was from the Transnistria. Several men from that region were among the detained, as well as several Russian citizens. What the Security Service of Ukraine stated in reality was that illegal armed groups from the Transnistria had taken part in the events in Odesa and they had been coordinated by sabotage groups from Russia (in Russian: You may believe it or not buth that’s what they have really stated.

    As for the Aeroflot version, I don’t believe in it now though it seemed highly plausible for some time after the tragedy, it would have perfectly explained the strange route of the Russian ‘Buk,’ to Donetsk and then almost back to Snizhne (first having planned to go to Pervomaiske further to the west of Donetsk but finally going to Pervomaiske south of Snizhne).

    • Ukrainians have a characteristic feature – a blame-someone-else mentality. People in power nicely figured out how to use it to their advantage – they always blame Russia, and this works so well. Sometimes it is even funny to watch fighting parties in Ukraine politics trying to outdo each other in blaming their opponents being Russian agents. This characteristic feature of Ukraine mentality, unfortunately helped spread the Nazi ideology.

      It is the neo-Nazis who were the driving force behind the Odessa massacre. To any clearly thinking person this is as clear as a day.

      Here is a nice video with ample material about the breadth of the grip of the Nazi ideology in modern Ukraine.

      Nowadays it is fashionable to conduct torch marches. In particular, there were many on the 1st of January this year in almost all major cities. Why they love the torch marches so much? Because they were popular under Hitler. They even often pick authentic Nazi Germany drum beats to march with. Seeing this for me, a Ukrainian, is sickening.

    • Oh yeah, forgot to add. The modern popular Ukrainian slogans nowadays are also modeled after the German Nazi ones: “Heil Ukraine”, “Kill the enemies”, “Ukraine is above all”.

      • Eugene, you are just another one believing in Kremlin’s lies while the reality is quite different.

        If you’d been interested in what happened in Odesa you’d know it were the Russian fascists who were the initiators of the tragedy. (By Russian, I mean not nationality or ethnic allegiance but the ideology. There are many Russian fascists who are formally Ukrainians.)

        And you’d know it were the Russian fascists who began, under police protection, (!) shooting at Ukrainian football fans killing about six of them before the pro-Ukrainian side, having no protection from the police (who were coordinating the fascists’ actions) also had to turn to arms.

        As for the modern popular Ukrainian slogans, the “Glory to Ukraine” slogan first emerged in 1918, far before the Nazis. As for the model for it, it must have been the traditional Ukrainian greeting, “Glory to Jesus Christ.”

        The other two, “Death to the enemies” and “Ukraine is above all,” are by far not “popular” — these are the slogans of some Nationalist groups having possibly less support in Ukraine than the Front National has in France.

        So please stop promoting the anti-Ukrainian propagandist lies.

        • [admin, I am sorry for a long post, not very relevant to the subject, but this is an important matter]

          > If you’d been interested in what happened in Odesa you’d know it were the Russian fascists who were the initiators of the tragedy. (By Russian, I mean not nationality or ethnic allegiance but the ideology. There are many Russian fascists who are formally Ukrainians.)

          This reply of a typical Ukrainian info-warrior shows who they see as an enemy – the people who have the “Russian ideology”. Do you think those thousands who participate in the torch marches in all major cities where they shout “death to the enemy” are really all nice people and mean no harm to those bearing “Russian Ideology”? Please go watch the long video I linked above again.

          If you ever looked carefully at nations once poisoned by the Nazi ideology, you’d see plenty of similarities in the psychological mechanisms at work. I’d even say they work almost identically. Most Nazi Germans would see nothing wrong about themselves then, just like Prosto. If you’ve been infected with Nazi ideology you wouldn’t feel this this from inside, unless you try hard. But if you end up on the wrong side in such a country, like what happened to jews in Nazi Germany or those bearing “Russian idiology” in Ukraine, you become insanely afraid. I can imagine how people who escaped the German regime felt, I feel almost the same in Ukraine.

          The army of Ukrainian info-warriors, of which Prosto is a good example, would use all means to make you believe they are nice. They’ve mastered the proven warfare tactics – take the truth, invert it, turn into narrative and drill, drill, drill. You can see this on Ukraine TV all the time and this works well on the (often uneducated, non-critical) population. Good examples of such cases:

          -They want you to believe that it is the rebels who shell the civilian cities inside the Donbass territory, not Ukrainian army.

          -They want you to believe that it is Odessa massacre victims who put themselves on fire not the mob pumped up with the Nazi ideology. Of course, the nice guys throwing Molotov cocktails into the building had noting to do with the deaths (

          -They want you to believe that the dozens of buses and trains with neo-Nazis brought to Odessa before the massacre had nothing to do with the deaths. Btw, Kolomoisky, mentioned on this site many times, was one of the sponsors.

          -They want you to believe the Nazi mob not allowing a fire brigade to approach the building had nothing to do with the deaths (the central Odessa fire station is only 400 metres from the building, they’d put down the fire in no time if allowed).

          -They want you to believe that their use of Nazi symbolics (e.g. wolfsangel symbol) is purely coincidental, their use of authentic German drum beats during the torch marches is purely coincidental, throwing Nazi salutes is a purely coincidental similarity, the slogans modelled after the Nazi German ones bear resemblance only as a matter of a pure coincidence. Them giving a hero status to a leader of organization performing an ethnic cleansing of a hundred thousands Poles in 1944 is all right.

          Ok, you can find young Nazi followers in any country. However, what matters is the attitude of the state towards them. Only in Ukraine they are supported by the state. Not in Holland, Germany or Russia Nazi mob would be allowed to photograph themselves in Police Headquarters. But in Ukraine they would: In no other country authorities relied on Nazi ideology as a force to get to power. Only in Ukraine. In no other modern country you can find Nazi crowds of such a large size, only in Ukraine.

          In his comment Prosto again demonstrated the default response: “blame Russia”. Always blame Russia. Blame Putin no matter how ridiculous the blame is. Recently, Ukraine (with the help from people from private battalions) severed the electricity lines to Crimea. And guess what? They claimed it was “Russian special forces” who blew up the pylons. What’s worst, is that most Ukrainians see nothing wrong with the country.

          To finish, here is a joke, which shows some aspect of Ukraine propaganda well:

          -Why do you wage war in the East?
          -Because it’s Russian army taking our land.
          -But why don’t you wage war in Crimea.
          -Because the Russian army is there.
          -What? I don’t understand. What’s the difference?
          -Well, in the East it’s only we say that the Russian army is there that but in Crimea it is for real.

          • The last line should read:
            -Well, in the East it’s only we say that the Russian army is there, but in Crimea it is for real.

            (Away for long)

          • Prosto Tak // January 10, 2016 at 2:58 pm //

            [admin, I am sorry for a long post, not very relevant to the subject, but this is an important matter]

            Eugene, the lies you repeat here are so brazen but they are still lies.

            The Ukrainians don’t see as enemies those with “Russian ideology” — only those with Russian fascist ideology. That’s the difference.

            It’s the ideology of Russian state fascism that feeds the war against Ukraine. But many Russians poisoned by that fascist ideology feel nothing wrong about it. And the army of Kremlin info-warriors, ow which Eugene is a perfect example, uses all means to make you believe they are nice and the Ukrainians are the evil beasts.

            They’ve mastered the proven warfare tactics: take the truth, invert it, turn into narrative and drill, drill, drill. You can see this on Russian TV all the time and this works well on the (often uneducated, non-critical) population. Good examples of such cases:

            They want you to believe the combined Russian-separatist forces in the occupied parts of the Donbas never shell the civilian cities within the occupied territory just to put the blame on Kyiv — while there is numerous evidence of them doing so. Ukrainian troops may also sometimes shell the residential areas but hey have to do it to destroy the enemy mortars or missiles firing on them from within those areas and using civilians as human shields.

            They want you to believe that there was a “mob pumped up with the Nazi ideology” in Odesa and to forget it was the mob with Russian fascist ideology that killed about six football fans and started the tragedy to unfold.

            They want you to believe the nice guys (= Russian fascists) throwing Molotov cocktails from within the building and incidentally starting fires inside had nothing to do with the deaths.

            They want you to believe the football fans that came to Odesa for an important match were “neo-Nazis” and the Russian fascists that began killing them were some “freedom fighters” or whatever.

            They want you to believe it was the imaginary “Nazi mob” not allowing the fire brigade to approach the building while the brigades only arrived at the place 38 minutes after the phone call.

            The Russian info-warriors who do not know history and blindly believe the Volhynia massacre took place in 1944 (it was in 1943) want you to believe that for the mass murder of about 35 thousand civilian Poles (not “hundreds thousands” though it’s a mass murder anyway) by a part of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and the local Ukrainian population as a response for the mass killing of several thousand civilian Ukrainians by the Poles, you have to blame the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists that partly controlled the UIA, Stepan Bandera who was in a Nazi KZ Lager for his anti-Nazi statements at the time.

            They want you to believe a group of neo-Nazis (who are much more numerous in a “highly spiritual” Russia) that took picture of themselves in a hall at the Kyiv Region Police Department back in October 2014, when dozens of people swarmed the building applying for a job, had anything to do with the police (none of them is).

            They want you to believe the Ukrainians blamed the “Russian special forces” for blowing up the electricity pylons in mainland Ukraine while this claim, most possibly untrue, was about a very different event when the electricity pylons fell down within the Russian-occupied Crimea after Ukraine had repaired the mainland line to make electricity imports still impossible, in line with Kremlin’s orders to stop those imports.

            They want you to believe it’s Kyiv waging war at the Donbas while Ukraine only has to defend itself from the Russian-inspired aggression.

            So, there’s no joke to finish. The Kremlin and its propagandist info-warriors are serious. Deadly serious.

          • Antidyatel // January 11, 2016 at 3:36 am //

            Sorry Eugene, but you Totally “Boggled” with your post. Long, emotional, without cross-referencing of data from both camps of propaganda war. Remember that truth is always somewhere in the middle and both parties are engaged in Propaganda.

          • You are all getting very much off-topic. Next reply which is not about the subject of this post will be deleted.

        • Even in France the truth starts to spread, so who do you think you address?

          That the Red-armbandists in Odessa were in filtrated under the protection of the government, and not true Anti-Maidan activists, was known days afterwards, and is well documented, though not spread in the media, as it would run counter to the prevailing “two legs bad, four legs good” narrative of pro-Russians vs. pro-Ukrainians.

          And that the Ukrainian “Black Hundreds” were the pattern for the NS “Freikorps” and the fascist “squadristi”, does not technically make them Neo-Nazis or Neo-Fashists, but rather Hitler and Mussolini Neo-Sotniks.

          • Prosto Tak // February 3, 2016 at 11:45 pm //

            The story is deliberately one-sided and much manipulated.

            (Only one of the examples: a man in the picture speaks to others and then, seeing someone off-camera turns there, smiles and raises the right hand to welcome the unseen person and mumbles some welcoming word we cannot hear because of the superimposed French translation; as soon as the man does it the narrator “translates”: ‘Heil Hitler!’)

            There is a response to what Moreira has in fact done: twisting the reality to match his erroneous scheme that he devised without having a slightest knowledge of Ukraine, apart from the Kremlin propaganda.

            The text is, however, in French:

  6. sotilaspassi // July 17, 2017 at 12:49 pm // Reply

    If someone has goal to down an airliner, surely one knows that with FlightRadar24 -kind of application it is easy to pick up the correct plane and correct moment.

    So far there is no strong indications that civilians were deliberately targetted. It seems, after BUK took the defence position, it was hasty launch vs first plane coming from Kiev direction.

    • I doubt MH17 was a quite random victim. In any case the persons who authorized delivery of the Buk had to assess risks for Putin and his regime if some airliner would be shot down, as such an event would be very probable if an autonomous TELAR was used. I think, if an airliner with a great number of U.S. citizens was shot down, the consequences for the Russian regime would be unacceptable because of an expected strong reaction from the U.S. authorities. But, for example, at 12:37 UTC that day the flight ETD170 Los-Angeles – Abu-Dhabi (Boeing-777) flew over there. So the masterminds had to take certain measures to make shooting down of such aircraft impossible, no matter what was the real purpose of delivering of the Buk.

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