Ukraine Secret Service SBU claimed at a pressconference Russia intended to shot down an Aeroflot Airbus aircraft enroute from Moscow to Larnaca. The aircraft would crash on a location controlled by the Ukraine Army. Russia would blame Ukraine and this would provide Moscow with a pretext for invading Ukraine. (Moscow Times)
This is the video recording of the press conference
I wrote a blogpost about this scenario here.
Separatists were “ordered” to position a Buk anti-aircraft missile near the village of Pervomaisk in eastern Ukraine, but because the fighters were Russian, not local, they confused two settlements with the same name and less than 100 kilometers apart, SBU chief Nalyvaichenko said in a statement by his agency.
So how likely is this scenario?
First of all the town of Pervomaisk. There are indeed multiple towns called Pervomaisk in Eastern Ukraine, as in Russia. That alone would trigger any person to double check on which town to drive to with a BUK when given the order ” go to Pervomaisk” .
Secondly, the BUK vehicle was photographed in Snizhne opposite the headquarters of the separatists. It was parked there for a while. I wrote a post about this here. The crew of the BUK for sure had contact with the separatists so a mistake of village is impossible.
Next the heading of MH17 was totally different than the heading of the Aeroflot aircraft. The crew of the BUK must have been aware of it.
The position of the Aeroflot aircraft relative to the BUK would be such that the Aeroflot aircraft crossed more or less from north to south on the western side of the BUK vehicle.
MH17 flew from northwest towards the southeast and was located northeast of the BUK is the BUK was positioned south of Snizhne.
So this is a very unlikely scenario. It seems the Ukraine secret service made a big mistake by publishing this story. Not their first mistake as they relaeased a photo of an Ukraine BUK on a trailer while telling the press it was a Russian BUK.