Russian MoD proved it lied at July 21 2014 press conference. Claims no BUK on radar

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At a September 26 press conference by the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russia stated there is no BUK missile detected on the raw primary radar recordings which were retrieved earlier in September by an Almaz Antey company. Russia also stated there is no other military aircraft near MH17.

Russia stated it will hand over the raw radar data to the Dutch investigation team.

It was not allowed for the press to ask questions at the end of the press conference.

There were two lies of the July 21 2014 press conference debunked by Russia itself on September 26.

  1. At July 21 2014 Russia stated there was a military aircraft near MH17. At September 26 Russia stated there was no other aircraft
  2. At July 21 Russia showed the route of MH17 had a strange curve. At the September 26 press conference the route of MH17 is all straight just like documented in DSB final report.

Russia stated Ukraine must have shot a BUK missile towards MH17. The fact that the Russian radar did not detect a missile from Ukraine held territory is:

“We need to point out the Russia radar station doesn’t allow us to see if anything is flown (towards the aircraft) from the south or the west.’’

That is quite interesting. The radar return of a missile flying towards MH17 flying northwest as seen from the Ust-Donetsk radar station is much less than the radar return from a missile flying from south to north as seen from the radar station.

This is the location of the Utes-T radar station at Ust-Donetsk. Ust-Donetsk can be seen in the lower right corner of the map below. The trajectory of the BUK missile when launched from separatists controled area south of Snizhne is indicated by the missile flying northwest.

The most left missile in the image below is the trajectory and angle when a missile was launched from an area near Zaroshchenske. You don’t need to be a master in mathematics to understand the surface of the missile when launched from Snizhne is much less than when launched from Zaroshchenske. So a lesser surface detected by radar means lesser reflection and thus detection.

The distance between Ust-Donetsk and the last position of the Flight Data Recorder is about 175 km. That is far less then the maximum range of the radar being 360 km.

Distance from  Ust-Donetsk to Zaroshchenske is 172 km.

So if a missile was not detected when launched from Snizhne, it is far more likely that it actually was detected when launched from Zaroshchenske. Hower Russia did not detect the missile.

 

detection-ust-donetsk

The recording of the September 26 press conference with english translator can be seen here.

The english translator is on the right speaker. In Windows you can mute the left, Russian language, speaker by configuration of the sound balance.

So Russia dismissed the most likely scenario in which a BUK TELAR supplied by Russia launched a missile from separatists controled area.

The timing of the press conference is remarkable, just two days before the Joint Investigation Team will make public the exact type of BUK missile and the exact launch location.

Russia proved in the September 26 press conference it lied at the July 21 2014 press conference. At that press conference it was claimed by Russia MH17 made a strange curve heading to the north, then return towards the south.

Below left the route of MH17 as shown by the Russia MoD at July 21 2014. Right the route of MH17 as shown on the press conference at September 26. The September 26 screenshot clearly shows MH17 did not make a turn like the one indicated by yellow. The route of MH17 was just like the flightplan with a slight deviation towards the north to avoid weather.

mh17track mh17-track-donetsk

Response of the Dutch prosecutor on Russia press conference

JIT responded a few hours after the press conference by sending an email to all next of kin. The text was:

Via the media the JIT has taken notice of the presentation that has been held by the Russian Federation today. The JIT will be presenting its first results of the criminal investigation this Wednesday. At that time we will go into the information that has been provided by the Russian Federation today.  

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15 Comments on Russian MoD proved it lied at July 21 2014 press conference. Claims no BUK on radar

  1. You “forget” about blind spots of radar. ARSR radars can’t see objects moving by normal to it (like missile from Zaroshenskoe). That’s why wee need more radar data from another points.

    • So no planes flying ±perpendicularly to the direction of radar are ever visible on the screen? JayDi, you repeat propaganda bullshit too often. Actually quite the contrary, radars may not “see” objects moving with a radial velocity exceeding the limit which the radar is intended for. Just because Dopler effect shifts frequency of reflected from a high-speed object signal out of radar’s pass band. So the Utes-T could likely NOT detect a missile flying from the direction of Snizhne even if its radar cross-section would be sufficient. But in case of flying from Zaroschenskoe the radial velocity of a missile (= linear velocity multiplied by cosine of the angle) would be subsonic, so it would be detectable by this Utes-T if its radar cross-section would be high enough.

      • You failed with your ukraine “propaganda bullshit” too often. Go to google map to check out routes. If you can’t do it again you can see that screenshot: http://uploads.ru/wJk0i.jpg

        Zaroschenskoe rocket moved on by 90 degree to radar (e.g. zero radial velocity). And yes — planes with zero radial velocity became invisible to radar — aircraft speed is undetectable and it’s becomes a clutter and removed from data by radar filter.

        Teach yourself: http://www.radartutorial.eu/11.coherent/Radial%20Speed.en.html

        • JayDi: anyone who fails to see Russia lied about the route of MH17 at July21 is not welcome at this website.

        • JayDi, the only way to consistently get precisely 90d angle is to fly in a circles centered precisely on a radar site. For most parts of a straight line course or for any reasonable real-world course you will get something like 85-87 degrees at the best. 9M38 rocket is a very fast target with a speed of approximately 1000 m/s, so even if this vector would be seen at 87d from radar site (that’s indistinguishable from a perfect perpendicular for a naked eye) that would be still a 50 m/s of radial velocity for radar which is more than enough to detect a moving target.

          • Utes-T uses adaptive lattice clutter-suppression filters (http://www.lemz.ru/en/publicdata/UTES-Tm.pdf , in their English it’s “adoptive grid Doppler filtration”). So I guess its minimum detectable velocity is not a constant, but should be very low when there is no weather clutter from meteoobjects with some specific radial velocity.

  2. Wind Tunnel Man // September 26, 2016 at 9:23 pm // Reply

    Admin:
    “You don’t need to be a master in mathematics to understand the surface of the missile when launched from Snizhne is much less than when launched from Zaroshchenske. So a lesser surface detected by radar means lesser reflection and thus detection.”

    Regarding radar detection from a certain distance of a SAM traveling at ~700m/s in a particular direction I think it’s better to wait for the opinion of impartial experts who specialize in the analysis of raw radar data and radar systems before commenting any further on this matter.

  3. It is insane how after hundred RUMOD lies people still believe RU had nothing to do with it.

    • It is indeed insane. I believe there are various reasons:
      Russian people are brainwashed by their media telling that Ukraine did it. They cannot think for themselves.
      Some Western people just hate EU, VS, whatever that they think Russia is innocent. They are not open for any discussion. They do not face the facts.
      Even after Russia made clear they lied some people still do think Russia is innocent.

  4. So what is the speed of target needed to Utes-T to detect it as a target? Anyone?

    As UTES-T has also Doppler mode, I guess that air traffice mode just filters out all echos having too low speed, like weather. While in doppler mode it does the opposite.

    If we know the threshold we know would it have been possible to detect the missile from south, whivh would have had practically zero angle to the Ust-Donetsk radar.

    While missile from esat to west would have hade some angle to the radar all the time, both horizontal and vertical angle, thus sppeed. With the high speed of the missille even smaller angle would provide enough speed to be detected.

    It is an open question how much echo is needed for detection, but in russian presentation they emphasized that Russian drone, which lenght was 3 meters and mostly non metallic, flying at the boerderline, was constantly detected without problem.

    I angree witH Wind Tunnel Man that we need to have more infoermation and it is possible to test this ou using UTES-T and BUK missille and see if radar can see it.

    Russians have both and it can be made in a controlled fashion having investigators present.

    • Drone length was said to be 2m.
      We have only RU MOD (reliable? LOL!) word that it is a drone and not a heli.

      To me it is clear the MH17 damage could only be caused from the same direction where eye-/earwinesses (+DSB+US+…) confirmed the launch & where rebels took the launcher. The rest seems futile.

      And we do not know if A-A supercomputers added or removed some/any data. We just know A-A is unreliable.

      • Wind Tunnel Man // September 27, 2016 at 2:02 pm // Reply

        sotilaspassi:
        “Drone length was said to be 2m.”

        Yes that is correct but please don’t forget it’s wing span. When making a banked turn it’s wings would perhaps make it a larger radar target than when, for instance, flying straight and level.

  5. Sorry about typos. Damn phone keyboard in a moving vechile.. No I’m not driving 😀

  6. Wind Tunnel Man // September 27, 2016 at 1:23 pm // Reply

    Janne:
    “It is an open question how much echo is needed for detection, but in russian presentation they emphasized that Russian drone, which lenght was 3 meters and mostly non metallic, flying at the boerderline, was constantly detected without problem.”

    A close look at the detection of the drone possibly appears to show more positional plots when the drone was flying approx east to west and vice versa rather than when it was flying approx north to south and vice versa. But this could be due to differing ground speeds. However as you say more information is needed.

  7. Isn’t it strange how some people start to jump after each new bone the RU MOD or RU PROP throws to them? Now there is a drone. I guess it must be an American drone. Probably the same kind of drone that drops Russian made bombs on UN convoys. Should we laugh or should we cry?

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