MH17: what we know 27 months later

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It is now October 2016 and it has been 27 months ago since MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile.

This post provides a summary of what DSB and JIT reported as well as my personal findings.

Summary: 

  • Russia is responsible for the downing of MH17 as it supplied and operated the BUK TELAR which shot down MH17
  • MH17 is part of a complex geo-political situation
  • the way evidence like photos and videos were distributed is very suspicious

Facts and my observations:

  1. Russia delivered a BUK TELAR to support the separatists. The BUK was useful as Ukraine fighterjets flew at altitudes too high for MANPADS.
  2. The BUK TELAR originated from a base near Kursk in Russia. The registration number is 332
  3. The BUK TELAR was transported on a lowloader pulled by a Volvo truck. The BUK crossed the border in the night of July 16/July 17. In the morning it was filmed in Donetsk from a car driving by.
  4. The crew of the BUK had very limited information about the target. A mistake is likely.
  5. The BUK fired a missile from  a field near Pervomaisk, south of Snizhne.
  6. One of the many indications the separatists shot down the aircraft was the fact a French photographer was called. He was told by a press officer the separatists shot down a military aircraft.
  7. The field shows a dark colour on satellite photos. Photos taken from groud level show a less dark colour. Photos taken from other crop fires indicate that in some fires ears burn while the stems not.
  8. Russia made many lies about MH17. That alone is highly suspicious.
  9. Russia did all it could to disturb and confuse the DSB and JIT press conferences. For example to hold its own pressconference just hours before the DSB and JIT conference.
  10. Russia vetoed a UN resolution to setup a tribunal for prosecution of the suspects. A UN tribunal would force Russia to hand over suspects.
  11. Ukraine should have closed its airspace according one of the conclusions of DSB final report.
  12. Dutch government nor the EU blaimed Russia for downing MH17 yet.
  13. Dutch government shares a very limited amount of information to the public and press.
  14. There were likely no Ukraine air force fighter aircraft operating near MH17 or over the crash site. Russian radar does not show any other objects.
  15. Russia did not hand over to JIT the primary radar recordings which were found after two years
  16. Ukraine handed over primary radar recordings made by a mobile radar unit
  17. Some people have doubts on all the evidence presented. So far each and every time these people were wrong.
  18. There is a lot of misinformation on many websites about MH17.

Prosecution and court case

  • JIT does not investigate the failure to close the airspace
  • JIT did not mention Russia as suspect state. This because the prosecutor cannot prosecute states.It can only prosecute persons.
  • In the plenary debate at October 26 Dutch goverment made clear it will only consider a case on liability for a state after the JIT investigation into the acting of individuals has ended.
  • it is clear JIT, Dutch state, EU and US does not want to blaim the Russian Federation for supplying the BUK systems. This is remarkable as a BUK system is not owned by individuals but by states. The most likely reason is gaining time. The JIT investigation will take years to complete (my personal guess). Somehow not a single state is interested in blaiming Russia nor Ukraine.

There are still many un-answered questions about the way the video’s and photos of the BUK TELAR and the smoke plume very made and distributed.

To me, it seems the Ukraine secret service was well aware of the presence of the BUK. People were on the look-out equipped with camera’s. An example is the photo showing a smoke plume released by JIT.

Also the way Pavel Aleynikov, the maker of the first two smoke plume photos, was alerted is strange. Initially he told journalists that he heard a big explosion that vibrated the windows. However it seems very unlikely that the smoke of a BUK can still be seen three minutes after launch. Later Aleynikov adjusted his story and told Bellingcat he was alerted by the sonic boom of the missile flying over his apartment.

To be continued!

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