At May 17 it was 22 months ago MH17 was shot down. This post will describe what I think happened.
There are simply too many unanswered questions. I do not believe the complete story is “BUK was delivered by Russia and shot down MH17”.
Examples of the many questions I have:
- why Ukraine did not close its airspace while it must have know about presence of BUK sysyems
- Why did Poroshenko did not send a letter to the next of kin as response to their request to hand over radar data?
- why was the transponder of MH17 transmitting unreliable data two minutes before the shotdown.
- why did DSB not mention this in the report?
- why and by who was the crashsite shelled after the bodies were recovered?
- why many cockpit roof parts disappeared from the crash site?
- why DSB has been not open about the investigation and leaves many questions?
- why Ukraine did not tell/DSB did not report about the destroyed radar station?
- why Ukraine did not hand over primary radar images
- why Russia deleted raw primary radar recordings?
- why Russia did not present a single, consequent story about what happened
- why Russia presented numerous clear lies and fakes
- why did Russia block the initiation of a UN tribunal
The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) will most likely release in July 2016 the exact type of BUK missile and the location it was launched from.
After two years we will finally know the weapon used. However we still do not know who is responsible.
My observations so far;
- separatists stated before July 17 they would shot down aircraft. Immediately after the shot down, on vKontakte it was claimed an Antonov was shot down. This was also reported in Russian press. There was also an eyewitness who mentioned seeing a missile. This was all within a few hours after the downing.
- Revealing the truth would have serious consequences for relations between Russia, EU and the United States. Maybe the current situation (western public believes Russia did it, Russian public believes Ukraine did it) is the best scenario. Putin has been punished by sanctions. No court case initiated by states to Russia. Move on.
- therefor all parties agreed to maintain a situation in which not a single state is blaimed presenting irrefutable evidence and taken to court
- Russian Federation main objective seems to be to spread as much as confusion as possible instead of one thing: present a consistent story with irrefutable evidence Russia showing they are not responsible for downing MH17
- Malaysia could be the only state which is looking for truth.
- DSB concluded a BUK missile downed MH17
- the missile was launched from an area of 320 square km mainly controlled by separatists
- Separatists had a good reason to use heavy surface to air missiles to down Ukraine air force jets
- there was heavy fighting around the area south of Snizhne
- Russia presented a lot of evidence most of which was easily proven to be faked
- DSB investigation results and way of performing investigation has raised quite a few doubts
- Not a single evidence points to an Ukraine BUK responsible for shot down of MH17
- An air to air missile is extremely unlikely to have downed MH17. Both R27 and Python require too many non-logical conditions. For example for a Python missile, the Georgian Airforce must have used a SU25KM to down MH17.
- Dutch government is acting weird , not logical and seems to hide facts
- US government refuses to release their evidence to the public
- Ukraine government and SBU made a few false claims.
- Websites supporting Russian Federation or separatists (like globalresearch.ca but there are many more) only job seems to spread confusion/mist without presenting facts or even telling complete nonsense. For example fort-russ.com in this article.
I believe on July 17 a BUK TELAR was transported on a lowloader plus Volvo truck from Donetsk to Snizhne, There are simply too many photos and videos which show the transport. Shadows are consistent with the timeline. Although the speed required to reach Zuhres is a bit high compared to the speed estimated on the May 12 video and the Zuhres video.
The smoke plume photo is likely to be genuine. Shadows were calculated and fit the time. Is the plume of a BUK missile, something else or was the smoke added using Photoshop? Unsure.
Did the BUK we saw on the videos and photos shot down MH17? Not sure. But likely.
There is a possibility the Ukraine Secret Service used the BUK convoy as a way to cover-up a false flag operation. Could an Ukraine fighter jet have shot down MH17? Highly unlikely. The report published by Russian journalist Albert Naryshkin (aka albert_lex) did not mention any air to air missile in use by the Ukraine air force. The report suggested the only weapon capable of downing MH17 was the Israel made Python air to air missile. Naryshkinm has some good contacts with Russian authorities as the report he published contained some undisclosed photos taken in the area where DSB performed the reconstruction. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs quoted parts of his blogs in a reply to Bellingcat. So I conclude the most likely air to air missile seen by Russia is the Python.
Nobody so far has been able to show photos of the fragments used by the Python. Also the weight of the explosives is relative light. As Ukraine officially does not own the Python missile nor can it be carried by fighter jets of Ukraine Air Force. Only the SU-25KM which is modernized by Israel is a candidate. Georgia is the only operator in the region of this type of aircraft.
As nobody was able to come with a reliable story about air to air missile, I believe it is very unlikely an A2A missile downed MH17.
Could it be a planned operation by the secret services of Ukraine and US. Could they have fooled the BUK crew somehow? Facts are there were no US passengers flying on MH17. Malaysia is a state with much better relations with the Russian Federation than with the US. And the Dutch Safety Board has a special legal protection in the Netherlands which prevents investigation information not published to be released to the public. Last but not least, the Dutch State is a strong ally of the United States. This could all be a coincidence but should be noted.by