At September 28 2016 the Dutch prosecutor will make public the first results of the criminal investigation into the downing of MH17. The exact type of weapon (missile and warhead) and exact launchlocation will be made public.
In 26 months there has been a lot of complete nonsense in main stream media and social media about who did it and why. In the next weeks this blog will publish more evidence supporting the believe documented below.
I have not seen any single credible alternative scenario presented by either the Russian Federation nor the Russian media. When the statements of the MoD presentation were all debunked, Russia decided to use the media to confuse the public. Helped with an army of all kind of trolls and Russia fanboys.
We have seen: SU-25 canon fire , Mig-29 air to air missile, Ukraine BUK at Zarochenske and a bomb planted in the cockpit by the CIA.
Some examples of disgusting methods to influence the public is sending fake evidence to next of kins and newspapers. Some Western newspaper even published the rubbish.
People commenting on this site which are unable to provide reasonable arguments while their comments looks like propaganda are banned from this site! Trolls will cry about “censoring”. I could not care less. Find another site to publish your opinion.
Oh, you think I am a Bellingcat fanboy now! While I do appreciate the effort Bellingcat did, I was and remain critical. See for example my post here.
Some people say “there is no evidence for a BUK. 100.000 people living in the area and nobody heard the launch”. First of all, the DSB scope was to determine the cause of the crash. Not the exaxt type of missile. In a highly sensitive investigation DSB could not reveal more than needed. We DO NOT know what the Joint Investigation Team has found out as this is not made public. Journalists talked to eyewitness who saw a missile flying.
This is what I believe happened:
- Ukraine air force attacks were a major threat to the separatists. The few Strela-10 they had were not effective enough. Ukraine air force aircraft operated at heights out of reach for MANPADS after Ukraine lost many aircraft due to MANPADS.
- Russia delivered at least one BUK TELAR system to the separatists to be able to destroy aircraft operating at altitudes out of reach of MANPADS. The route and origin of the BUK has been documented by Bellingcat.
Some believe the narrative of the BUK was a fake story as the reports on social media about BUK sightings on July 17 were all from pro-Kiev people. However there are at least two reports of a BUK on July 17 from people supporting the separatists. See this post here.
- To distract the origin of the BUK, separatists claimed to have captured an Ukraine BUK showing an old photo.
- Ukraine intelligence services were fully aware of the presence of at least one BUK but failed to close the airspace
- The BUK TELAR was positioned in a field somewhere south of Snizhne
- The crew of the BUK believed an Antonov transport plane was their target.
- Not trained in autonomous mode the crew made an error in the assessment of the type of target
- The crew nationality will be hard to establish but most likely it was Russian
- Under stress by SU-25s of Ukraine Air Force in the neighborhood which can detect the BUK radar, the radar of the BUK was switched on last minute, making identification of target difficult.
- Crew made a mistake and shot down MH17
- Separatists initially believed they shot down a military aircraft
- As soon as it was clear they made a mistake the Russian propaganda started. One of the first was the famous Carlos Tweets.
- Dutch government found it very difficult to act in a highly political situation and decided to cooperate with Kiev
- As soon as the bodies were recovered Ukraine forces started an offense towards the crashsite making recovery into the cause of the crash very difficult. This attack was clearly a disgrace and delayed the investigation and recovery. The reason for the attack was that Ukraine wanted control over the crashsite. Ukraine promised to the Dutch government to respect the cease fire but it did not. The Dutch government documented that. Agreed was a ceasefire in the area with a radius of 40 km. Ukraine government had to vote in parliament to allow recovery teams to operate.
Conclusion: the first priority of Ukraine was to capture the area around crash site. Recovery and investigation was a lower priority. At the end of July Ukraine indeed controled parts at the south and southwest of the crashsite.
- Because of the delay in recovery some crucial parts of wreckage disappeared from the crashsite. Some of the parts were very big so likely this was some sort of organized removal. Obviously the main evidence, being the cockpit, could not be removed.
- Prosecution of the perpetrators will be very difficult
- Dutch government does its best to keep information secret. A reason for it can be not to bring the courtcase in danger. Another reason is politics. Other states will not appreciate if confidential talks are made public.