This post provides an overview of important pieces of what could be parts of the complete MH17 puzzle. Many many questions are still unanswered 19 months after the shot down.
I encourage you to use the comments to express your opinion about what could have happened.
Months before July 17
- Ukraine President Yanukovich impeached in February 2014 (Source)
- Putin annexed Crimea (March 2o14)
- Separatists supported with Russian equipment and Russian military leaders revolted in Eastern Ukraine. (Wikipedia)
- Oligarchs and Ukraine politicians have warm connections with the United States.
- Euromaidan is an important piece of the puzzle
- Ukraine politicians are corrupt. Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia
- Ukraine does not have a regular army like in Western countries. There are extreme rightwing armies which has mercenary soldiers from many countries. These are not controlled by the Ministry of Defense in Kiev but rather by oligarches like Kolomoyskyi which has ties to Israel.
- The Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Commission. This is an alternative to the ICC. The court convicted Israel , US President Bush and UK PM Blair.
- Malaysia has friendly ties with Russia
- US and Ukraine pushed EU to sanctions just before July 17 (source)
Nasty surprise announced at July 8
- Ukraine threatens rebels with ‘nasty surprise’ in new push (Reuters)
- Ukraine ATC organization UkSATSE failed to close the airspace over Eastern Ukraine. Despite the fact there were many indications of heavy weapons. Despite multiple shot downs of military aircraft. UkSATSE also did not mention war activities in NOTAMS. UkSATSE also did not report to Ukraine that one of the primary radar stations was destroyed. (source)
- There were no American citizen on board of MH17
- There was one person holding a dual US/Dutch passport
At shot down
- A few minutes before the shot down, the transponder of MH17 started to sent out unreliable data according to avherald.com . This has not been reported by the DSB. (Avherald)
- Separatists nor Russia did not have a motive to shot down a passenger aircraft. Could it be a mistake?
- Ukraine had a motive to shot down a passenger aircraft deliberately and blame Russia for it (false flag). A second motive is military. Ukraine forces used the crash to start an offensive trying to isolate Donetsk.
- Sanctions against Russa were increased due to MH17 and the annexation of Crimea
First weeks after July 17
- US embassy Kiev released an impression showing the trajectory of the BUK missile on Facebook. US Government never released an official document (censor.net)
- US intelligence agency did not release an Intelligence Assessment of the cause of shot down. Instead a Goverment Assessment was released (Consortiumnews)
- Russia made false claims about the route of MH17 and location of BUK seen missing a missile (source)
- Ukraine started an offensive towards the crash site around July 27 just after the bodies were recovered (source)
- At July 17 Israel started a ground offensive in Gaza (Wikipedia)
- Ukraine, the Netherlands, Belgium and Australia started a Joint Investigation Team.
- Malaysia was initially not part of the JIT but joined later
- Each JIT member has Veto power which means they can decide to withhold the release of information during the JIT agreement.
- The JIT agreement is recently extended to October 2016
Who controlled the area
- Maps showing separatist controlled area does not exclude that Ukraine army entered separatists controlled area. There is a video showing Ukraine convoy driving near crash site at July 28 (source)
- The United States did not release in public any satellite photos nor SBIR intel. Despite the fact that many commercial satellites operated above Eastern Ukraine at July 17. (source)
- Russia provided a video recording showing blend of primary and secondary radar
- Ukraine claimed their primary radar stations of civil ATC were in maintenance. Later Ukraine ambassador stated one of the radar stations was destroyed. The other was in maintenance. (source)
- Ukraine claimed their primary radar for military air traffic control was switched off as no military flights were planned.
- Ukraine military and civil air traffic control is operated by the same organization UkSATSE
- One of the two primary radar station was destroyed at June 16 2014. DSB did not mention this fact in the final report
- United States did not provide any hard, irrefutable evidence which indicated who is responsible for downing
- Bellingcat presents reports suggesting a Russian BUK was seen in Donetsk driving East to Snizhne
- Bellingcat makes reports based on assumptions and logic instead of hard evidence (source)
- Elit Higgins, founder of Bellingcat, is fellow of Atlantic Council. Atlantic Council, based in the US, can be seen as a marketing agency for NATO.
- The Bellingcat website started at July 15, 2014. Two days before the shot down of MH17
- A photo of a smoke plume which could be the BUK launch was released
- This report shows many doubts about the narrative of Bellingcat (source)
- A BUK on trailer missing one missile took a very unlogical route. Video likely to be faked for many reasons. (source)
- Western regular media make the mistake of linking Russia media to the Russian government. When Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper financed by George Soros (anti-Putin) writes that MH17 was shot down by a BUK, this is not a statement of the Russian government.
- There is a lot of misleading of public opinion by Western press like NOS, Reuters, CNN and BBC (source)
Eyewitness of fighter jets
- There are many eyewitness who state they saw one or more aircraft (source)
- DSB did not talk to eyewitness on the ground despite the recommendation in Annex 13 of ICAO to do so
- A Dutch military intelligence service report states they did not have any information on the presence of a Russian BUK in Eastern Ukraine at July 17. (source)
- A BUK TELAR is able to shot down a target in autonomous mode
- the BUK missile has a semi-active radar homing radar which means the missile is guided from the BUK TELAR radar or other ground based radar to its target (Wikipedia)
- This makes it unlikely the missile retarget like what happened with the Siberia Airlines Tu154 shotdown. Most likely MH17 was the target of the BUK crew (knowing it was a passengerplan or believing it was a military aircraft like IL76)
- Only two bow-tie shaped fragments were found in bodies of the cockpit crew. (DSB report)
- DSB report is not clear on what they concluded about the bow-tie shaped fragment found by Jeroen Akkermans of RTL Nieuws.
- Finland got rid of the BUK system as the country was afraid it had backdoors preventing defense against Russian aircraft (source)
- Dutch prosecutor has a suspicion on murder. This makes it more likely the BUK crew knew it was targeting a civil aircraft
- The JIT agreement between the Netherlands and Ukraine has been extended to October 2016
Dutch Safety Board
- Concluded MH17 was shot down by a BUK warhead 9N314M on missile type 9M38M series
- Did not allow press to ask questions after the presentation of the final report at October 13 2015
- Did not talk to air traffic controller
- Did not report that one radar station was destroyed in June 16, 2014
- DSB is by law prohibited to provide more information than what has been document in the final report
- Ukraine should have closed its airspace as there were enough indications for heavt weapons able to hit passenger aircraft
- Final report has many flaws (source)
- Russia Rosaviatsiya sent two letters to DSB with criticism on the DSB investigation
- Dutch government refuses to complain at ICAO, Russia and Ukraine about the two states not handing over primary radar. The reason is that DSB states extra radar recordings are not required. The prosecutor states extra radar is not required
- Dutch government blocks information, blocks debates on radar recordings, and so on and so on. (source)
There are a couple scenario’s possible. If it turns out that the evidence posted on social media is fake, MH17 is likely to be a false flag operation
- A Russian BUK TELAR shot down MH17 by mistake believing it was a military aircraft
- A Russian BUK TELAR shot down MH17 but targeted a military jet operating at a lower altitude. The guidance of the missile was compromised. An Ukraine radar station guided the missile to MH17
- An Ukraine BUK Telar entered the area west of Saur Moglia and deliberately shot down MH17 in a false flag operation.
- An air to air missile. DSB did not rule out all types of air to air missile. The report stated that DSB investigated air to air missiles commonly used in the region. DSB found some pieces of a BUK missile. A parts of paint of a BUK missile